Deterrence and a long-range strike capability for Australia (part 2)

n my previous article, I looked at classic deterrence theory, which distinguishes between deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial. The latter is more direct and arguably more effective when the measure of effectiveness is shaping a potential adversary’s perceptions.

What does this mean for an Australian long-range strike capability? First, I don’t think we can exercise deterrence by punishment against a great power. Delivering high explosives long distances is expensive and difficult, even if technological developments mean it can be done increasingly precisely. There would also be too many targets in the adversary’s homeland for it to be a compelling punishment. Moreover, because the adversary has the ability to escalate, they would rightly think that Australia wouldn’t actually do it.

Read more: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/deterrence-and-a-long-range-strike-capability-for-australia-part-2/